Session 10: Technology Assessment & Forecasting

Brief Overview/ Introduction

Technology assessment and forecasting was the topic of this week’s session. Technology forecasting consists of predicting the future direction of the technology. In contrast, technology assessment involves evaluating the potential changes and implications that may result from an emerging technology, and finally deciding on whether or not to bring forth its existence.

During the session, we discussed the importance and techniques of evaluating the potential implications of presently emerging technologies, as well as the changes and steps that have to be implemented in order to make those emerging technologies a reality in the future. It is crucial to consider not only the future benefits each technology may bring, but also the possible costs they may impose on certain stakeholders, so as to avoid unintentionally inflicting harm to those directly or indirectly related. 

The basis of this topic is about looking forward into the future, where there are opportunities. It is therefore important for businesses to be forward-looking if they want to remain successful, and those companies who are caught up with their past and present situation are bound to get left behind.

Interesting Observations & Ideas:

Prof began the session by showing us a video of how Siemens has successfully captured and leveraged on a few of the future megatrends. The video shows how Siemens has proven itself to be rising star company by not only identifying the megatrends it could potentially exploit on, but also how they plan on achieving those goals. The 2 megatrends that Siemens has leveraged on are demographic change and urbanisation. They have predicted the changes in people’s needs, such as ensuring a sustainable water supply, increasing demand for personal security, rising healthcare needs and convenient transportation services, and have accordingly thought of the potential infrastructures they would put in place in order to satisfy those future consumer needs and  demand.

For example, to address the growing demand in healthcare services, Siemens plans to build a digital hospital which completely electronifies patients’ data, saving valuable time, increasing productivity and cutting costs.   Besides preparing them for the future, their innovative and forward looking strategies and solutions allows them to remain ahead of their competitors and protects their position and relevance in the market. Siemens’ way of disclosing its future plans and strategies may seem foolish to some, as it exposes itself to its rivals. This move indeed presents this disadvantage, yet, it provides Siemens with abundant advantages as well. It enables the company to obtain meaningful feedback and criticisms from its target customers and shareholders, thereby affording them the ability to make adjustments to their plans that are aligned with customers’ preferences. This smart move also opens the company to opportunities for useful, powerful alliances and partnerships with like-minded companies.

The ever changing consumers’ needs and environmental conditions, are not the only few drivers for constant technology assessment and forecasting. There is a rapid emergence of various novel technologies with revolutionary or revolutionary effects, thereby creating the need to obtain a thorough understanding of the resulting economic, ethical, social, legal and environmental changes and implications. For example, bringing in automated cars is highly innovative and possess many advantages, however, we need to consider the fact that driving cabs provide an avenue for people who are jobless, thus to bring forth the introduction of automated vehicles would essentially deprive these people of their last source of income. Furthermore, given our limited resources and capabilities, we need to prioritise while developing and implementing new technologies, deciding upon only those which provide us with more benefits than costs. This is especially so for those developing countries. Who you are is a crucial factor to consider when investing in new technologies, if you are a small company with scarce resources, you would want to concentrate on technologies that will produce gains in the short run. Conversely, if you are large, with abundant resources, say a government running a country, you would most likely be interested in the long term gains.    

Key takeaway points:

I feel that the key takeaway message from this session is to bear in the mind the need to be forward-looking and avoid getting too involved in the past and present situation. Considering the fast and rapid pace of things today where change is the only constant, visioning the future is the way to avoid getting left behind and becoming obsolete. Moreover, we have to bear in mind the potential implications when selecting an emerging technology to invest in, because it is easy to lose ourselves to the exciting advantages they may bring. We wouldn’t want to bring about consequences that may offset and deprive us of substantially the entire benefits.  

Session Rating:  7/10